Research article

Physical vulnerability of buildings to flooding in Lilongwe City, Malawi

Authors
  • Chresceuntia Matambo Msasa (Land Surveying and Physical Planning Department, Malawi University of Business and Applied Science, Blantyre, Malawi)
  • Mtafu A Z Chinguwa Manda orcid logo (Department of the Built Environment, Mzuzu University, Mzuzu, Malawi)

Abstract

Research on flood vulnerability has mainly focussed on social, economic and human vulnerability and the few studies that have attempted to analyse the physical vulnerability of buildings to natural hazards (seismicity and floods) have been done at the subnational spatial scale resulting in generalised vulnerability outcomes. Additionally, most of the studies used models to analyse vulnerability which are known for uncertainties in the results. This study investigated the physical vulnerability of buildings to flooding in low-income settlements of Biwi and Kawale 1 in Malawi’s capital city, Lilongwe. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences 20 was used for descriptive statistics frequency, cross-tabulation and chi-square analysis to correlate exposure factors and the physical vulnerability of buildings. The study found that exposure factors variably influenced the physical vulnerability of individual building types, and that building typology and floodwater depth were important factors. Irrespective of their location, buildings constructed using fired bricks with cement mortar walls and cement floors had low vulnerability while buildings constructed using fired bricks in mud mortar walls and cement floors had high vulnerability. Buildings with protective measures such as high foundations had low vulnerability. The chi-square correlation test showed that the physical vulnerability was influenced by building typologies and floodwater level with a significance value of 0.001 (p < 0.001) and 0.004 (p < 0.005), respectively. Rather than urban planners and disaster management officials emphasising stream reserves as a preventive measure, advocating for the construction of buildings using flood-resistant materials and with high enough foundations in flood-prone areas should be considered central to urban flood risk reduction. Flood vulnerability studies should be conducted in other flood-prone cities of Malawi to support effective citywide urban planning and disaster risk management.

Keywords: physical vulnerability, flooding, exposure factors, elements at risk, Lilongwe, Malawi

How to Cite: Msasa, C. M. & Manda, M.A.Z.C., (2025) "Physical vulnerability of buildings to flooding in Lilongwe City, Malawi". UCL Open: Environment 7(1). doi: https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.3216

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Published on
17 Jun 2025
Peer Reviewed

Introduction

Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa experience recurring floods [1]. Tiepolo ([2], p. 25) reports that ‘the flooding has a direct impact on the population, buildings, livestock, crops, and goods, as well as an indirect impact on human, economic, social, financial, political, and institutional terms.’ The rapid increase of urban populations exacerbates exposure to flooding as high housing demand forces many low-income earners to settle in flood-prone areas [1] where the quality of building is too poor to withstand flooding [3,4]. Urban Malawi also experiences climate change-related extreme weather events such as floods [5]; mainly flash floods and river or fluvial flooding [6]. The most recent was Tropical Cyclone Freddy-induced floods and landslides that caused 679 deaths, with 537 people missing, 2178 people injured and 882,989 people who had their houses damaged (Department of Disaster Management Affairs [7]), mostly in the south of Malawi and several urban centres including Blantyre City. In Mzuzu City similar floods have also been reported [8,9]. In Lilongwe City, river floods were reported in 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, causing death, damage to buildings and displacement of households [10]. However, as most studies on flood vulnerability in Malawi focus on social and economic vulnerability, data on the vulnerability of buildings to floods is scarce. This is despite buildings being an essential component of social, economic and human activities [11]. The study assessed the physical vulnerability of buildings to floods in low-income areas of Biwi and Kawale 1 in Lilongwe City. Specific focus was on building exposure and vulnerability and the effectiveness of household building protection measures. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: The next section reviews the literature related to flooding and building vulnerability, followed by an outline of the methods used to collect and analyse the data. The fourth section presents the study results followed by a discussion of the results, while the final section presents a conclusion.

Literature review

Physical vulnerability originated from the hazard and impact approach from climate change-related studies and is thus seen as a function of hazard, exposure and sensitivity [12] of infrastructures, populations or activities, and the resulting or potential impacts [13]. According to van Westen ([14] p. 5-4), ‘physical vulnerability means the potential for physical impacts on the physical environment, which can be expressed as elements-at-risk, resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude’ and is ‘expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total damage)’. Kappes et al. [15] observed that in many studies on physical vulnerability, vulnerability is perceived as ‘the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by the hazard.’ The emphasis is on the role of hazards and their physical impact ([16]: p. 14) on the exposed and susceptible systems. Moreover, physical vulnerability is a functional relationship between process magnitude, the impacts on the structural element at risk and exposed values [17]. For example, the physical vulnerability of the built environment is related to the fragility of physical structures and the expected degree of loss or damage resulting from the impact of a certain hazard event on the elements at risk [17]. The impact on physical structures can only happen to structures that are present at the location where hazard events (such as floods) can occur [18]. Messner and Meyer [19] note that elements at risk of being affected become vulnerable if exposed to a hazard and so (flood) vulnerability analysis needs information concerning factors that are specified as elements of at-risk and susceptibility indicators.

Studies on the assessment of physical vulnerability to natural hazards are scarce in developing countries [20]. Fatemi et al.’s study in the peri-urban areas of Dhaka, Bangladesh examined the physical vulnerability of residential buildings, flood damage and local physical response to flood in which a building’s typology was classified based on the roof, walls and floor materials [21]. The results showed that buildings constructed from durable materials experienced low damage while those constructed with temporary and natural materials suffered high damage, while buildings older (than 20 years) and those that were lower than the plinth level had a high damage rate. Balasbaneh et al.’s study on the vulnerability of building materials by examining the degree of damage for each structure in Malaysia (based on five types of wall materials: brick, concrete block, steel wall panels, wooden walls and precast concrete framing) found that wooden walls were the most vulnerable while concrete block and precast concrete framing were the least vulnerable [22]. Shrestha et al. [23] investigated flood impact on residential buildings and household assets in the Bago region of Myanmar by correlating a flood event with buildings characteristics (construction materials, number of stories and plinth height level from the ground) and household assets using flood damage functions (depth–damage curves). The study found that increase in elevation of the plinth level and additional stories of the building significantly reduced the damage to buildings and assets.

In Malawi, research on the physical vulnerability of buildings to nature-induced hazards such as flooding and earthquakes has only started to emerge. For instance, Goda et al. [24] conducted a risk assessment of urban and rural settlements around Lake Malawi (in Karonga, Mzuzu, Mangochi, Zomba and Lilongwe). The study aimed to quantitatively assess the seismic risk to urban communities in Malawi and identify data and models for exposure, hazard and vulnerability modules that are suitable for Malawi. Buildings were classified based on the World Housing Encyclopaedia (WHE) [25] where building classes similar to buildings in Malawi were retrieved and assigned their vulnerability classes and the percentage of buildings in each vulnerability class was calculated. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators were used in the models for risk and seismic vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability indicators consisted of building materials and their ratings on seismic vulnerability by the WHE, and the percentages of buildings in each vulnerability class. Global vulnerability functions were used to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings based on expert judgement (as damage data was not available). Three models were used to predict the collapse of buildings due to different magnitudes of earthquakes (ground shaking and motion). The 2009 Karonga seismic damage data was used to validate the findings. However, the results from building collapse curves for three types of buildings were not reported as the results were identical, and it was attributed to the 15% of buildings that had an unclassified vulnerability class. The findings on the prediction of earthquake impact on the population showed that the impact of the earthquake on the population in Lilongwe was greater than the impacts on the population in other sites. The results of the seismic risk assessment showed that the hazard level was influenced by proximity to fault systems and rupture characteristics.

Ngoma et al. [26] conducted a study whose main aim was to investigate the characteristics of current building stocks in Malawi and to develop a building classification scheme that is consistent with the structural engineering perspective to define their seismic vulnerability. The data for buildings were collected from urban and rural areas in Central and Southern Malawi. The buildings were classified based on the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response database (PAGER) system [27] as mud walls with horizontal wood elements and mud walls without horizontal wood (M1 and M2, respectively); adobe blocks were subdivided into adobe blocks, mud mortar, wood roof and floors (A1), and adobe block, mud mortar, straw and thatched roof (A2); unreinforced fired brick masonry was subdivided into unreinforced fire brick masonry with mud mortar (UFB1) and unreinforced fire brick masonry with cement mortar (UFB4). The proportion (percentages) of the number of buildings per class was calculated and the building classes were assigned seismic vulnerability rates. The seismic fragility curves for collapsed buildings were modelled and predicted using the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. The results from seismic fragility curves showed that mud walls without horizontal wood (M2), adobe block, mud mortar, wood roof and floors (A1), adobe block, mud mortar, straw and thatched roof (A2), and unreinforced fired brick masonry with mud mortar (UFB1) are more vulnerable to seismic hazards. Unreinforced fired brick masonry with cement mortar (UFB4) has the lowest vulnerability. However, the results of the fragility of buildings were not validated with the real damage data due to a lack of empirical data.

Gortzak [28] conducted research in Karonga to predict the areas that are most vulnerable to floods. Buildings were classified using a machine learning algorithm model based on wall, roof and floor materials collected from unmanned air vehicles and Street View (Mapillary), and were validated using Open Street Map and household surveys. The building classification followed the National Statistical Office (NSO) [29] classification criteria (permanent, semi-permanent and traditional/thatched buildings). The physical vulnerability results show that there was a high correlation between flood depth and damage to buildings. The expected damage to traditional, semi-permanent and permanent buildings at an inundation depth of 1.5 m was expected to be 100%, 60% and 35% damage, respectively. Another study was conducted by Mwalwimba et al. [30] in Karonga District to obtain baseline data for quantifying the vulnerability of households to flood risk with buildings being classified based on the weakness or strength of the construction materials (weak, strong and very strong). Building typology and age were used to determine the households’ protectedness and resilience from flooding. The study found that building type had significant correlation with households’ vulnerability to floods.

The foregoing studies suggest that different countries use different construction materials and the analyses were done on different spatial and temporal scales making buildings’ vulnerability analysis difficult to compare [20]. It can also be noted that though some of these studies were conducted at similar spatial scales and with the main construction materials of buildings being similar, they differed in how the building typologies were created, for example, Ngoma et al. [26] classified buildings from an engineering perspective while Gortzak [28] and Mwalwimba et al. [30] used NSO [31] building typologies, resulting in different building classes. Another point to note is that different hazards (seismic and floods) have different impacts on buildings, therefore the results of the analysis of the physical vulnerability of buildings are not relatable [22,32]. In addition, vulnerability also depends on the affected site and the use of site specific variables in analysing the vulnerability of the elements at risk is encouraged [33]. It is noteworthy, all the same, that the use of models has the disadvantage of predictions based on models with some uncertainties in their results, such that using them may not give true results [32].

Methodology

Description of the study site

The study was conducted in Lilongwe City (Fig. 1), which has, based on the official Malawi Government 2018 census (NSO), a population of 989,318 rising at 3.8% per year from 674,448 in 2008 [31]. The study targeted two low-income settlements of Biwi and Kawale 1 and focussed on buildings within a 50 m buffer zone along the Mchesi River, between the Chidzanja and Kawale bridges (Fig. 1). Stream reserves are prescribed by government departments such as the Department of Physical Planning, which recommends 15–30 m on either side of a river according to its size [34]. This study used a 50 m stream reserve to assess whether buildings beyond the official buffer zone would be vulnerable to flooding. The Mchesi River acts as a physical boundary between the Kawale and Biwi Townships. The number of people settling on riverbanks such as that of Mchesi and other river reserves since the return to multi-party democracy in 1994 has been increasing ([35], p. 15). The two settlements experience near annual flood events; the most severe ones occurring in December 2017 and January 2019.

Figure 1
Figure 1

Map of Biwi and Kawale 1. Source: GIS Data from Department of Surveys.

Figure 1 shows a map of Biwi and Kawale 1 (within 50 m buffer of the Mchesi River) and Fig. 2 is a map of Lilongwe City showing the study sites (inset).

Figure 2
Figure 2

Map of Lilongwe City with inset. Source: GIS Data from Department of Surveys.

Data collection methods and preparation

The study followed a mixed method approach where both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to collect and analyse data. A building inventory and household interviews were the main data sources. Qualitative data was collected through observations while quantitative data was collected through questionnaire-based household interviews and physical measurements. Table 1 presents the data, data collection methods (sources) and measurements that were collected for this study.

Table 1.

Variables, data measurement and sources

Variables Description Data measurement Data source
1 Building characteristics Main construction materials for walls and floors Qualitative Building inventory, household questionnaires and field observation
2 Exposure and flood extent Proximity to the river, frequency of inundation, inundation frequency, flood depth and duration elevation of surroundings of buildings Quantitative Household interviews, physical measurements and field observation
Qualitative Field observation
3 Flood damage Flood damage to wall, floor and roof Qualitative Field observation
4 Protective measures Vegetation on river reserve, brick fences, sandbags, storm drains, elevation of surroundings of buildings and flood-resistant construction materials Qualitative Field observation
Foundation height and households’ monthly income Quantitative Physical measurement and household questionnaires
  • Adapted from: Sagala [20], Uwakwe [36] and Balasbaneh et al. [22].

Sampling framework

This study used building inventory, household surveys, field observations and technical measurements to collect data on building characteristics, flood damage and exposure factors. The number of buildings for the study area was not available as the study site did not coincide with official enumeration areas used during the national census. Therefore, a high-resolution (0.60 m resolution) QuickBird satellite image of 2016, the latest available at the time of the study, was used to digitise buildings and a total of 200 buildings were digitised for the building inventory. To account for buildings constructed after 2016 and before the 2017 flood event a physical count was also conducted, and 130 buildings were identified from the 50 m river buffer zone between the Chidzanja and Kawale 1 bridges. The Malawi Government [34] planning regulations stipulate a 30 m stream reserve within which no buildings are permitted. A 50 m reserve was used for this study to ensure a wider coverage to determine the impact of the river reserve prescription. The sample sizes for building inventory and household interviews were computed using Israel’s [37] formula for infinite population size:

n=N1+N(e)2,

where n is the sample size, N is the population size and e is the level of precision set at 5% or 0.05.

The sample size (infinite) for building inventory is:

n=N1+N(e)2=200/(1+200(0.05)2)=133.

The sample size (infinite) for household interviews is:

n=N1+N(e)2=130/(1+130(0.05)2)=98.

Thereafter, the calculated sample sizes were adjusted for finite population sample sizes to increase the power of statistical tests by Hoyle’s [38] formula:

na=n1+n1N,

where na is the adjusted sample size, n is the sample size for infinite population size and N is the population size.

The adjusted (finite) sample size for building inventory ([38] formula) is:

na=n1+n1N=133/(1+(1331)/200)=80,

where na is the adjusted sample size, n is the sample size for an infinite population and N is the population size.

The adjusted sample size for household interviews is:

na=n1+n1N=98/(1+(981)/130)=56.

Therefore, the adjusted sample sizes for building inventory and household interviews were 80 buildings and 56 households, respectively. The selection criteria for the sample elements were based on Israel [37] where the Kth element was computed by dividing the population by sample size (N/n), which gave an interval of 3, thus, a total of 52 interviews were conducted.

Data preparation

The building inventory involved observations and recording construction materials for walls, floors and roofs, proximity to the river, measurements of foundation heights (above the ground) and the geographic location (coordinates) of buildings. Several pit latrines, kitchens and bath shelters were observed but all were excluded from the inventory for the study. Household interviews using questionnaires comprised building use/function, floodwater level, flood damage on buildings and contents, and buildings protection measures. The literature on the physical vulnerability of buildings classify buildings using floor, wall and roof materials [20,21,36,39]. In this study, building typology was determined using a combination of the construction materials for walls (types of bricks and mortar) and floors, but excluded roof materials as all the buildings in the study area were roofed with corrugated iron sheets. This building typology is different from the classes used during the national population and housing census (see [31], p. 32): materials for walls, roofs and floors define buildings as traditional, semi-permanent or permanent. Additionally, the study characterised walls based on brick-and-mortar types as opposed to use of brick types alone as it was observed during the building inventory exercise that two types of mortars were used for the construction of walls in the study area, and the walls (with different mortars) showed that they had different resistance to floodwater flow pressures. To that effect, the study used site specific classification of building typology by considering the mortars used for wall construction. The foundation height of building was not part of the building characteristics used to typify buildings; however, foundation heights were used as one of the structural protection measures of buildings.

Flood damage data for buildings was collected using household questionnaires. The descriptions of damage to parts of the buildings were adapted from Uwakwe [36] and Sagala [20] and were described as nothing happened (NH), half damage/collapse (HC) and collapsed (C) in the household questionnaires (Table 2). To come up with the overall damage to a building, the possible combination of damage for floors, walls, windows and doors of the buildings were analysed (Table 3).

Table 2.

Descriptions of building damage

Serial no. Damage Description
1. Nothing happened (NH)
  • If material types of floors, walls, windows and doors were not damaged due to a certain level of flood depth

  • If the material does not need any replacement due to several occurrences of floods and still can function for several years

2. Half collapse (HC)
  • If materials of part of floors, walls, windows and doors are partially damaged from a certain level of floodwater depth and there is a need for repair

  • If the material does not need any replacement directly after one flood occurrence and if the material needs to be replaced after several occurrences of floods

3. Collapse (C)
  • If the material of floor, walls, windows and doors are completely damaged from a certain level of flood depth and need to be replaced

  • Source: Adapted from Sagala [20], Uwakwe [36] and Balasbaneh et al. [22].

Table 3.

Combination of damage to parts of buildings and scales

Category Damage combinations Damage scales assigned
1 Nothing or no damage happened to the floors, walls, windows and doors from floodwater 0
2 One part of the structure (for windows or doors) had half collapsed due to floodwater 0.125 (rounded up to 0.13)
3 One structure material type (window and door) had collapsed 0.25
4 One material type collapsed and another half collapsed 0.375 (rounded to 0.38)
5 Two structure material types collapsed 0.5
6 Four material types had half collapsed
7 Two structure material types collapsed and one half collapsed 0.625 (rounded to 0.63)
8 Three structure material types collapsed 0.75
9 Three structure material types collapsed and one structure half collapsed 0.88
10 All four-structure material types collapsed 1
  • Source: Modified from Uwakwe [36].

The damage grades were further assigned scales between 0 and 1, where there was no damage 0 was assigned and 1 was assigned to building collapse. Table 4 shows the description of the damage and the vulnerability ratios assigned.

Table 4.

Damage and vulnerability ratios

Damage descriptions Vulnerability class Vulnerability ratios
No damage No vulnerability 0
Slight damage Low vulnerability 0.01–0.31
Moderate Moderate vulnerability 0.4-0.71
Severe/collapse High vulnerability 0.8-1
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Selection of variables and rationale

The literature about the physical vulnerability of buildings to floods provided exposure factors or variables that were used in the analysis. The study used some of the exposure factors from the literature when their data was available for the study site. Table 5 presents the exposure factors used in the study and their justification for being selected.

Table 5.

Rationale of exposure factors selection

Variable Rationale Sources
1 Main construction materials for walls and floors Different construction materials (building typologies) have different sensitivities to inundation Malgwi et al. [40]; Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]; Njajal et al. [42]; Leal et al. [43]
2 Surroundings of the building Buildings on different terrain elevations are inundated differently due to different floodwater flow directions and pressure Malgwi et al. [40]; Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]; Njajal et al. [42]; Leal et al. [43]
3 Distance to river Buildings close to flood-prone areas or the river are more at risk of being flooded, with higher levels of faster-moving floodwater causing damage due to hydrodynamic forces, debris impact and foundation erosion Njajal et al. [42]; Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]; Singh and Kanungo [44]; Leal et al. [43]
4 Flood depth The higher the floodwater level, the more damages occur to the structure and building contents and vice versa Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]; Sagala [20]; Uwakwe [36]; Malgwi et al. [40]; Leal et al. [43]
5 Flood frequency (period) The resistance of buildings to floods deteriorates due to high frequency of inundation Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]
6 Floodwater duration The longer the duration of inundation on the building, the weaker the building’s resistance becomes Njajal et al. [42]; Akukwe and Ogbodo [41]; Singh and Kanungo [44]

Data analysis methods

Data was analysed using descriptive statistics: frequencies, cross-tabulation and chi-square in the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 20 with a significance of 5% (p < 0.05). The analysis was done in three stages. Firstly, descriptive statistics frequencies were applied to construction materials from the building inventory and the household survey data from 52 households. Secondly, cross-tabulation analysis was conducted for the building materials to create building typologies and for exposure analysis. Thirdly, the chi-square correlation test between exposure factors and flood damage on buildings was conducted.

Study results

Key elements are at risk

The results in Table 6 show that the study area was predominantly residential with 96% being residential buildings and about 4% being schools. According to the Lilongwe City plan, the area was developed in line with the designated residential zoning for low-income earners where the traditional housing type of buildings are permitted. In such areas households are permitted to build outside kitchens, pit latrines and bathing shelters. Whereas data on one school was unavailable, the other school had up to 165 pupils.

Table 6.

Building functions

Building function/use Percentage
Dwelling house 96.2 (50)
School 3.8 (2)
Total 100 (52)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

It was found from the building inventory and household survey that 58% and 50%, respectively, of the buildings had fired bricks and cement mortar walls and cement floors (Table 7). This implies that most of the buildings in the study area were permanent as they had been constructed using durable building materials as defined by the Malawi Government [34].

Table 7.

Building types

Wall type BI floor types HHI floor types
Cement Earth Cement Earth
Fired bricks and cement mortar 58% (48) 4% (3) 50% (26) 15% (8)
Fired bricks and mud mortar 2% (2) 16% (13) - 14% (7)
Sun-dried bricks and mud mortar 16% (13) 5% (4) 15% (8) 6% (3)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

The buildings were categorised into classes for easy referencing. Table 8 shows the building typologies from the household survey data.

Table 8.

Building typologies from the household survey

Building type Wall type Floor type
Structure type 1 Fired bricks and cement mortar Cement
Structure type 2 Fired bricks and cement mortar Earth
Structure type 3 Fired bricks and mud mortar Earth
Structure type 4 Sun-dried bricks and mud mortar Cement
Structure type 5 Sun-dried bricks and mud mortar Earth
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Figure 3 shows the building types found in the study area from building inventory data. Figure 3a is constructed with fired bricks with cement mortar walls and cements floors; Fig. 3b is built with fired bricks with cement mortar walls and mud/earth floors; Fig. 3c is constructed using fired bricks with mud mortar walls and cement floors; Fig. 3d is built of fired bricks with mud mortar walls and mud floors; Fig. 3e is made of sun-dried bricks with mud mortar and cement floors; and Fig. 3f is built of sun-dried bricks with mud mortar and mud floors.

Figure 3
Figure 3

Building types. Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Building exposure to flooding

The results of exposure analysis (Table 9) based on the distance of buildings from the river and the elevation of the surroundings of the buildings show that over 90% of buildings were inundated by one or two flood events regardless of their proximity to the river and 100% of buildings that were on flat terrain were inundated by one or two flood events. Figure 4 shows a building close to the river.

Table 9.

Exposure of buildings based on their location

Exposure variables Description Flood inundation frequency
None ≤2 Times >2 Times
River proximity <30 m 0% (0) 94% (29) 7% (2)
31–50 m 5% (1) 91% (19) 5% (1)
Elevation type Flat 0% (0) 100% (14) 0% (0)
Gentle slope 3% (1) 92% (34) 5% (2)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Figure 4
Figure 4

Building close to the river. Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

The results of exposure of buildings based on inundation depth inside the buildings also show that over half (54%) of the buildings were inundated by high floodwater of over 60 cm (Table 10). Figure 5 shows floodwater level marks inside of the building. Some of the buildings were partly damaged or had totally collapsed. The high number of buildings with high inundation levels inside them shows that either many buildings had low foundation levels which allowed floodwater to enter the buildings or their protection measures such as storm drains, brick fences and vegetation cover were not effective enough in reducing flood risk.

Table 10.

Flood water depth and duration

Inundation depth % of buildings
 Low (<30 cm) 21% (11)
 Moderate (31–60 cm) 25% (13)
 High (>60 cm) 54% (28)
Floodwater duration % of buildings
 <1 h 55% (6) 18% (2) 27% (3)
 2–4 h 66% (19) 21% (6) 14% (4)
 >4 h 58% (7) 17% (2) 25% (3)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2019.

Figure 5
Figure 5

Floodwater level inside a building. Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Vulnerability by type of buildings

The cross-tabulation of building typologies and the physical vulnerability ratios results in Table 11 show that building type 2 had a high percentage of buildings with high vulnerability (38%) while building type 1 had highest percentage of buildings with low vulnerability (69%).

Table 11.

Vulnerability by type of building

Vulnerability classes Building typologies
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Low 69% (18) 50% (4) 57% (4) 63% (5) 33% (1)
Medium 15% (4) 12% (1) 29% (2) 25% (2) 33% (1)
High 15% (4) 38% (3) 14% (1) 13% (1) 33% (1)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

The chi-square correlation between the physical vulnerability of buildings ratios and exposure factors results in Table 12 show that building typology and floodwater depth had a statistically significant influence on the physical vulnerability of buildings (p < 0.001) and (p < 0.05), respectively. The Crammers V value for physical vulnerability and building types was 0.6, which is close to 1; this shows that there was a strong relationship between the variables. The Crammer’s V value for physical vulnerability and floodwater depth was 0.3, which shows that there was a moderate relationship between variables.

Table 12.

Buildings’ physical vulnerability and exposure factors correlation

Variables Pearson’s chi-square value Degree of freedom (df) value Significance value Crammer’s V value
Building types 91.4 0.15 0.001 (p < 0.001) 0.6
Floodwater depth 15 4 0.004 (p < 0.05) 0.3
Proximity to river 5.41 2 0.763 0.4
Flood duration 1.7 2 0.421 0.2

The correlation analysis between the vulnerability of individual building types and the proximity of buildings to the river (Table 13) show that the proximity of buildings to the river had a statistically significant influence on the physical vulnerability of building type 4 (with sun-dried bricks and mud mortar walls and cement floors) with p < 0.05.

Table 13.

Building types vulnerability and proximity to river

Building types Pearson’s chi-square value df value Significance value
1 1.7 4 0.773
2 2.8 2 0.240
3 5.3 2 0.070
4 9.6 4 0.048 (p < 0.05)
5 3.0 2 0.223
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Figure 6 shows the collapsed walls of a type 4 building (sun-dried bricks with mud mortar walls and cement floor).

Figure 6
Figure 6

Collapsed walls of building type 4. Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

The results of the relationship between floodwater depth inside the buildings and the physical vulnerability of buildings (Table 14) revealed that the vulnerability of building type 1 and building type 4 had statistically significant correlation with p < 0.05.

Table 14.

Vulnerability of building types and floodwater depth

Building types Pearson’s chi-square value df value Significance value
1 9 4 0.050 (p < 0.05)
2 17.5 20 0.620
3 11.3 8 0.184
4 10 4 0.048 (p < 0.05)
5 0.750 1 0.386
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

The results of the correlation between floodwater duration inside the buildings and the vulnerability of building types (Table 15) show that there was a significant relationship between floodwater duration and the vulnerability of building type 1 and building type 2 with p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively.

Table 15.

Vulnerability of building types and floodwater duration

Building types Pearson’s chi-square value df value Significance value Crammer’s V value
1 47.8 28 0.011 (p < 0.05) 0.499
2 10 2 0.007 (p < 0.01) 1
3 17.04 20 0.650 0.320
4 12.37 12 0.416 -
5 - - -
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Household building protection measures

Building protection and flood prevention measures including structural, non-structural and reforestation of the river reserves [45] used by households in the area were identified. Structural protection measures also known as flood barricading [46] are employed to protect buildings from flood damage. The measures include the choice of building construction materials and foundation elevation [45]. The non-structural measures are applied to protect the building site/area through the blocking of floodwaters, such as drainage improvement or building water retention zones [45]. The non-structural measures used were constructing barriers such as brick fences, terraces along the riverside, digging storm drains around the buildings, and laying sand and stone bags along the riverside to keep floodwater from entering the houses [45].

Field observations also showed that several buildings had both structural and non-structural protection measures; however, few buildings had all three measures, which made it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of individual non-structural measures in isolation from others. Nonetheless it was expected that buildings with protective measures would have low vulnerability. As shown in Table 16, about 57% of the buildings that had employed all the protection measures (structural, non-structural measures and reforested the riverbanks) had low vulnerability and 29% of the buildings with the same protection measures had high vulnerability. Some buildings had both structural and non-structural measures; however, 40% of them had low vulnerability and 23% had high vulnerability. Those with high vulnerability also had other challenges such as low foundation levels. The chi-square correlation between vulnerability and protection measures results (Table 16) showed that the protection measures had statistically insignificant contribution to the vulnerability of buildings with p > 0.05. The foundation height of buildings plays an important role as a protection measure by either restricting or allowing the entry of floodwater into the buildings [47]. A low-elevation foundation can let in floodwater easily and damage the contents of a building while an elevated foundation will restrict floodwater entry. The results of cross-tabulation analysis in Table 16 show that 78% of buildings with high vulnerability were those with low foundation height (<30 cm), while none of the buildings with high foundations had high vulnerability. The chi-square test results (Table 16) show that foundation height insignificantly influenced damage of buildings (p > 0.05).

Table 16.

Buildings vulnerability and protection measures

Buildings vulnerability Chi-square (vulnerability vs exposure factors and vs foundation height)
Low Moderate High Chi-square Value df Significance value
1. Protection measures
All measures protection measures 57% (4) 14% (1) 29% (2) 1.894 4 0.755 (p > 0.05)
Reforestation and non-structural 0% (0) 100% (2) 0% (0)
Structural and non-structural 40% (14) 37% (13) 23% (8)
2. Buildings vulnerability and foundation height
Foundation height
Vulnerability Low (<30 cm) Medium (30–50 cm) High (>50 cm) Chi-square value df Significance value
Low 64% (16) 20% (5) 16% (4) 4.6 4 326 (p > 0.05)
Moderate 50% (9) 17% (3) 33% (6)
High 78 (7) 22% (2) 0% (0)
  • Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Figure 7 shows some of the building protection measures employed in the study area. Most buildings had multiple protection measures, Fig. 7a had structural (raised foundations, flood-resistant building materials), non-structural (storm drain) and vegetation along the river side, Fig. 7b had non-structural (sand bags and a storm drain) and vegetation as building protection measures, Fig. 7c had structural (flood-resistant construction materials, a brick fence and terraces along the river side) and vegetation and Fig. 7d had structural (flood-resistant building materials and a brick wall and vegetation) as building protection measures.

Figure 7
Figure 7

Some building protection measures. Source: Fieldwork, 2018.

Discussion

There are several factors which contribute to the vulnerability of buildings to flooding in low-income areas of Lilongwe City, including the type of construction materials, their exposure to flooding, the characteristics of the terrain of the surroundings of the buildings and flood characteristics such as floodwater levels. A building’s vulnerability may also be due to how it is protected from flood impacts. This analysis focussed on the characterisation of the elements at risk, exposure analysis, comparison of an individual building’s vulnerability and the effectiveness of the protective measures adopted by households.

The study established from both the building inventory and household surveys that key elements at risk for physical vulnerability assessment were five types of residential buildings. The most prominent type were buildings constructed with fired bricks and cement mortar walls and cement floors while the least common type was built using sun-dried bricks with mud mortar and mud floors. It was observed that most of the buildings had multiple building protection measures, which may imply that the inhabitants were aware of the flood risk. Ngoma et al. ([26], p. 65) found that ‘the use of fired bricks and cement mortar is increasing in the urban areas’ possibly because of the homeowners’ awareness of flooding. The study revealed that over half of the buildings that had all the protection measures (structural, non-structural measures and reforested the riverbanks) had low vulnerability. The result disagrees with Müller et al. ([33], p. 2116) who found that protection measures, although regarded as important by officials, were not effective in reducing the physical vulnerability of buildings to floods as there was ‘no significant relation between the households that have private flood mitigation measures (e.g. walls or water gates) and households that suffered damage.’

The study established that all buildings that were on flat terrain were flooded by either one or both flood events. In fact, almost half of the buildings were inundated with high levels of floodwater of more than 60 cm. Sagala [20] found that single-storey buildings with a low plinth level, such as those studied here, were inundated with high levels of floodwater. This implies that floodwater had easier entry into buildings that were on the flat terrain than those that were on relatively higher ground. Although other factors such as floodwater velocity, depth, incident angle and dynamic pressure causing scouring and erosion of foundations [4850] may have contributed to the inundation of buildings, it is clear that terrain, rather than stream reserve, is a key factor. It is not surprising that almost all (over 90%) buildings were inundated by one or both flood events irrespective of their proximity to the river as observed from the flood level markings on the walls. Specifically, all buildings that were located within the 50 m reserve were exposed to flooding, which challenges the Malawi Land Use Planning and Development Management Guidelines and Standards which set the buffer zone (river reserve) of 15–30 m on either side of rivers [34]. Nonetheless, that citizens of Lilongwe can build houses in locations restricted by bylaws and regulations points to the difficulties of accessing ‘good’ land within the city, where political settlement is among the key determinants [51]. Furthermore, even though the study did not collect data on ancillary buildings such as pit latrines, it can be mentioned that flooding could pose serious public health problems such as the spread of disease such as cholera for which Lilongwe is already well known [35,52,53]. As the two study sites are within planned locations, informal extensions and formal allocations in otherwise flood-prone sites suggests that there are weaknesses in the development control systems [54].

The comparison of the vulnerability of different types of buildings suggests that building type 1 can be said to have low vulnerability and building type 2 has high vulnerability. Building type 1 and type 2 had the same type of walls (fired bricks with cement mortar) but had different floor materials. This would suggest that if soaked in water some floor materials can weaken and render the buildings vulnerable, or that there were other factors at play that increased the vulnerability of building type 2. According to Kloukinas et al. [55], apart from construction materials, some factors for the high vulnerability of buildings are poor and variable construction practices including lack of skilled labour and lack of building designs suitable for areas prone to disasters triggered by natural hazards such as floods. It was also established that the exposure factors variably influenced the vulnerability of the building types. For instance, the vulnerability of building type 1 and type 2 was influenced by floodwater duration inside the buildings, which may suggest that the longer the construction materials are inundated, the more the fragility of the buildings increases. This agrees with Sagala [20] who found that some building materials upon being inundated with floodwater for some days can weaken and develop cracks and shear. Similarly it was revealed that the vulnerability of building type 4 was significantly influenced by their proximity to the river, which may suggest that most of these buildings were close to the river. This agrees with Leal et al. [43] who found that buildings can be vulnerable to flood impacts due to their location or position on the flood plain.

Conclusion

The study assessed the physical vulnerability of buildings to floods in the low-income settlements of Biwi and Kawale 1 in Lilongwe City. The study concludes that although many buildings were within a 50 m river buffer zone, due to several factors, not all exposed buildings were vulnerable to flooding, and this was irrespective of their locational characteristics. The typology of buildings significantly influenced their vulnerability. Building type 2, constructed using fired bricks with cement mortar walls and mud floors, had high vulnerability, while building type 1, constructed using fired bricks with cement mortar and cement floors, had low vulnerability. The use of multiple protection measures such as structural, non-structural and vegetating of river reserves was more effective in reducing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding than single measures. In order to reduce building vulnerability to floods, in as far as prescribing buffer zones is an essential policy direction where data availability is lacking, constructing buildings using permanent materials and incorporating multiple protective measures is a more effective and worthy advocacy. For instance, using flood-resistant materials and elevating the foundations of buildings to greater than 30 cm above the ground can significantly reduce the vulnerability of buildings to flooding. Further research on the physical vulnerability of buildings, including key elements at risk such as pit latrines and bath shelters in flood-prone areas, can be conducted in low-income settlements citywide and countrywide.

Authorship contribution

CMM: conceptualised the study, collected and analysed data, drafted final paper; MM: conceptualised the study, analysed data and revised the final paper.

Open data and materials availability statement

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Declarations and conflicts of interest

Research ethics statement

The authors declare that research ethics approval for this article was provided by the Mzuzu University Research Ethics Committee (Mzunirec) protocol number Mzunirec/dor/23/40. Fieldwork was supported by permission from Lilongwe City Council Letter Ref. LLC/ADM/7 dated 4 December 2018.

Consent for publication statement

Not applicable to this article.

Conflicts of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest with this work.

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 Open peer review from Kai Wang

Review
Thanks to the authors for addressing all my concerns satisfactorily.

Note:
This review refers to round 2 of peer review.

 Open peer review from Kai Wang

Review
This study aims to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings to flooding in the settlements of Malawi’s capital city, Lilongwe. It is found that exposure factors variably influenced the physical vulnerability of individual building types and that building typology and foundation height were also important factors. In particular, buildings constructed using fired bricks with cement mortar walls and cement floors had low vulnerability while buildings constructed using fired bricks in mud mortar walls and cement floors had high vulnerability.
The study collected first-hand data of 130 buildings and 52 interviews, which shows the potential to make original contribution to this topic. However, the whole manuscript just reports some simple statistic results of the data, and there is lack of in-depth analysis. My comments are as follows.
1. Abstract: Though the authors mentioned OLS regression and p values, there is no such information in the major contents.
2. Abstract: With regards to the sentence started with “Rather than..”, there are few other issues for the authors consideration before reaching such conclusion. First, stream reserves and better construction of buildings should refer to different scales of flood risk prevention measures. The former works for relatively larger scale, and the latter only works for building itself. Moreover, stream reserved may be more related to the reduction of inundation depth, which is a key parameter in the examination of physical vulnerability. However, the impact of inundation depth was not analysed in the study.
3. Data collection: Why chose these parameters, and what are the relationships between these parameters and the physical vulnerability? The authors should describe the rationality.
4. Data collection: It would be better if the authors can list a table to describe all the parameters and their units and data ranges etc.
5. Table 1&Table 2: It would be better if the authors could explain the link between these two tables. Are slight damage and moderate damage both derived from Half Collapse?
6. Table 2: How to categorise the degree of damages?
7. 3.3 Data Analysis: I cannot find the results related to this part.
8. 4.0 results: (1) Please correct the number of the Tables. (2) These are just simple statistical description of the data. It is hard to distinguish or isolate the key parameters in affecting the damage or physical vulnerability.

Note:
This review refers to round 1 of peer review and may pertain to an earlier version of the document.

 Open peer review from Viviana Novelli

Review
The paper addresses the critical issue of physical vulnerability to floods in informal settlements but lacks clarity and alignment in key areas. These include a need for a more detailed methodology section explaining research methods, a consistent approach to data analysis and interpretation. The abstract does not accurately reflect the study's scope and findings, and there is insufficient integration of existing literature on building classifications and vulnerability assessments. Parameters such as foundation depth and identified building types, as well as protective measures, are collected but their impact on vulnerability levels remains unclear. A more robust critical analysis of how vulnerabilities correlate with on-site observations is essential, along with a discussion on replicability. Consistency in formatting is necessary to enhance the paper's impact and potential for publication.

Detailed Review:
The author should ensure that the font is consistent throughout the text, that tables and sections are numbered correctly and sequentially, and that captions explain the content of the figures in detail rather than being generic
Abstract:
The abstract does not accurately reflect the content of the paper. It should mention that various studies on the physical vulnerability of informal settlements have been conducted for other types of hazards (e.g., earthquakes) but not for floods, therefore it is important to investigate this.
The use of HIS, OLS, and SPSS is mentioned in the abstract but is not clearly explained the methods and their application. More comments have been added for section 3.3.
It is mentioned that foundation type data and its depth are used to assess vulnerability, but there is no analysis in the paper considering foundation height and its impact on vulnerability.
The calculation and significance of the p-value are noted in the abstract but not discussed in the text. Specifically, p < 0.005 is not discussed in the paper; section 3.3 only refers to p < 0.001.
The conclusion lacks clarity regarding how the parameters collected on site impact vulnerability levels. It appears that vulnerability has been analyzed primarily based on damage levels, without clear evidence that different building typologies influence vulnerability. While this may not be the authors' intent, the data suggests otherwise.

Literature Review:
The author should mention previous studies on seismic risk and vulnerability assessment of informal settlements (Kloukinas, P., Novelli, V., Kafodya, I., Ngoma, I., Macdonald, J., & Goda, K. (2020). A building classification scheme of housing stock in Malawi for earthquake risk assessment. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 35, 507-537; Novelli, Viviana Iris, et al. "Fragility curves for non-engineered masonry buildings in developing countries derived from real data based on structural surveys and laboratory tests." Soft Computing 25 (2021): 6113-6138; Novelli, Viviana, et al. "Seismic mitigation framework for non-engineered masonry buildings in developing countries: application to Malawi in the East African rift." Resilient Structures and Infrastructure (2019): 195-223).
Why does the authors’ work not refer to existing building classifications? How does the authors' classification differ from those developed in previous research? The classification in this work is also based on wall type and floor type, similar to other building classifications. The need for a new building classification is implied in the paper, yet the reasons behind it are not highlighted.
On page 3, the authors should refer to the more recent census data rather than NSO.
The authors should clarify the terms "weak," "strong," and "very strong" and their relevance.
The authors should explain how building age data was used to assess vulnerability and the source of this information.
The authors should add a reference to the statement: “The foregoing studies suggest that different countries use different construction materials, making buildings’ vulnerability analysis difficult to compare.”

Section 3.0 Methodology:
The authors should clearly define the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the study.
The authors should ensure that it is clear where Figure 2 is sourced from and indicate that Figure 2 is close up from Figure 1.
The authors should differentiate between the building survey and household survey, Including forms or specific questionnaires used for the data collection if applicable.
The authors should justify the comparison of data from 2016 and 2017. It is not clear why this was needed and how the data gathered from this comparison was used for the vulnerability study.
The authors should clarify how the sample sizes of 80 buildings and 56 households have been calculated.
The authors should explain the proximity to the river and its significance and discuss how this has been used to assess vulnerability. Including this data as a parameter to assess vulnerability will be much more significant than basing the vulnerability assessment solely on the observed damage.
The authors should Discuss the importance of foundation height, building age, and construction details, and how these can impact vulnerability.
The authors should Specify the building protection measures. Define what you mean by structure type and provide pictures so that it is clear how these building have been classified and how these are compared with the typologies defined by previous studies such as Novelli et al. (2020) or those defined by the census (permanent, semi-permanent, traditional).
Use the term "roof" instead of "floor" since houses are single-story.
Provide clear definitions and ensure consistency between Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1 depicts three levels of damage, whereas Table 2 presents four levels of damage. It is unclear how the authors classified the damage observed on site using either three or four levels, indicating inconsistency between the two tables.
How can you be sure that the light damage is caused by floods and not pre-existing damage? Most of the time, the damage observed on these houses is not necessarily caused by floods, so how have different types of damage (flood-related or not) been distinguished? Or has this distinction been made?
Clarify the classification of damage and provide pictures taken on site to illustrate the levels of damage observed.
Provide criteria for determining vulnerability ratios and ensure consistency in terminology and explanations. Some time you use moderate and other you use medium vulnerability
Explain the methodology for classifying houses into types and provide visual examples (pictures taken on site) to help the reader understand the typologies.
Ensure that figures like Figure 3 and Table 7, which are not mentioned in the text, are clearly explained.
This distinction is crucial as it affects how buildings are classified. In the context of "cement and earth floor," it typically refers to concrete floors and earth-based materials for roofing, such as thatch. It's important to note that in Malawi, roofs are predominantly constructed from lightweight and flexible materials rather than concrete.

Sec 3.3 Data Analysis:
Clarify the purpose of population information and its correlation with vulnerability. Explain the calculation of p-values and the use of OLS and ArcGIS on 52 households. Justify the significance of these analyses in the context of the study.
It is not clear why you need information on the population and how this is correlated with vulnerability. How did you calculate the p-values, and what are you trying to demonstrate? How did you use OLS and ArcGIS on 52 households? This is not clear, and I do not understand why it is important in your study.

4.1
It is stated that buildings are built according to recommendations for low-income earners; however, the houses in Figure 3, particularly the third and fourth pictures, do not appear to be built based on recommendations. These buildings have poor materials, lack connections, and have many deficiencies.
When the authors state that houses are designed based on how informal houses should be built, are they implying that there are existing guidelines and recommendations for flood resilience? To my knowledge, there are no standards available to create flood-resistant informal houses; there is likely only limited information in general safety guidelines.
On page 6, the authors mention having only one type of roof (metallic sheet), but later discuss roofs made of cement and earth. This inconsistency needs revision for clarity. Additionally, as said earlier it's unclear what is meant by floors made of earth and cement. Visual examples of these roof types would help define the different typologies observed on site.
Substitute the word “building” with “structure.”
Referring to my earlier comment, where I questioned the assertion that buildings are constructed according to guidelines for low-income housing, the building types described in the paper do not conform to these standards. Houses with sun-dried bricks and cement roofs (Type 4) do not typically align with expectations for informal settlements, as Type 4 structures are traditionally built with inappropriate roofing materials.

Section 4.2 and 4.3
Table 6: How was it determined that the houses had been flooded twice, and what significance does this hold for the study? What is the author attempting to demonstrate regarding vulnerability through this information?
Why are you considering whether the house is within 30 meters from the river? This suggests that some regulation sets this distance. Please specify why these 30 meters is important.
In Table 6, the numbers per row are incorrect: 94% + 7% = 101% (impossible, this should be 100); 5% + 91% + 5% = 101% (impossible, this should be 100). Each row should total 100%.
Table 6 is meaningless if the exposure variables are not combined with the classification of building type and vulnerability level associated to the buildings.
Then it is stated that 54% of the buildings were affected by floodwater with a height of 60 cm. According to the paper, this information is attributed to Table 6, but I am unable to locate it within the table. How was this specific data obtained?
How do the authors define a low foundation?
Figure 4a: Delete the "a".
Table 7 is not clear and not explained in the text.
How are the vulnerability levels and their ranges defined? Clarifying these definitions with visual examples would enhance understanding of how vulnerability is assessed. The current information and definitions in the paper make it challenging to apply the proposed method effectively.
The vulnerability level is sometimes called "medium" and other times "moderate." Please be consistent.
Type 4 is considered equivalent to Type 1 in terms of vulnerability. However, Types 2 and 3 show vulnerability levels that are not significantly different from Types 1 and 4. The author needs to clarify how different building types influence vulnerability. As defined in the paper, building typologies do not appear to strongly affect vulnerability, suggesting a gap in understanding. The data does not convincingly demonstrate that better-built houses respond better than weaker ones.

Section 4.4
What would authors recommend based on your data and results? What’s the protective measure that authors would suggest
The paper discusses structural and non-structural protection measures. However, it remains unclear how these measures affect vulnerability. Despite their presence, the measures do not appear to significantly reduce observed damage. This raises the critical question: what factors truly influence the vulnerability of these houses?
Table 9: The numbers per row do not make sense; they should total 100%.
How do these protective measures relate to building types? Is there a correlation suggesting that buildings with such measures are less vulnerable? The current data does not demonstrate this, raising concerns about the completeness of the correlation between building types and vulnerability.
Schools cannot be included in this study, as they are generally built better than houses.

Conclusion
The conclusion fails to acknowledge that Type 4 seems to perform similarly to Type 1, which is perplexing.
Furthermore, it overlooks the consideration of foundation depths and the potential impact of preventive measures on vulnerability.
There is ambiguity regarding whether certain building typologies outperform others, particularly as the first four types appear remarkably similar, which seems implausible.
Additionally, the proper definition of vulnerability levels remains uncertain. Lastly, suggesting a foundation raised 1 meter above ground as a viable preventive measure to reduce vulnerability is impractical.

Note:
This review refers to round 1 of peer review and may pertain to an earlier version of the document.