Research article

Essential tripartite strategy to address the climate overshoot

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This article is a preprint and is currently undergoing peer review by UCL Open: Environment.

Abstract

Reflecting on the current state of play on climate action, we conclude that a re-framing is needed if the era of climate overshoot above 1.5°C is to be contained. Coupled with a century’s action, the falling price of solar PV means that China could significantly benefit from leading on high quality geological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) using ultramafic rock structures in the Sultanate of Oman and elsewhere. However, even if CDR proves to be scalable and economic, more needs to be done to bring global temperatures back to safe levels. Efforts must be re-doubled to phase out unabated fossil fuel use, to enhance climate finance and expedite renewable energy roll-out. Adaptation plans designed for 2°C of warming must be implemented. Fossil fuel subsidies must be diverted towards CDR and carbon markets need to prioritise geological offsets. There needs to be a robust legal framework to prevent further weakening of climate action. Currently this does not exist but the developments on ecocide “unlawful or wanton acts, committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts” [33] are gaining traction internationally and would help contain climate overshoot.

Keywords: climate change, overshoot, CO2, uptake, mitigation, adaptation, environment, damage, attribution, liability, law, ICC, ICJ, ecocide, CDR, removal, TCRE, geological, mineralisation, ultramafic, olivine, CCS, capture, storage, China, solar PV, photovoltaic, finance, subsidies, offset, CTBO, takeback, obligation, CBAM, carbon, border, adjustment, mechanism, NDC, nationally, determined, contribution, UNFCCC