Daniel Noboa’s victory in the second round of the presidential elections on 15 October 2023 was perplexing for supporters of the former president, Rafael Correa. How did a right-wing candidate with a similar neoliberal agenda to the deeply unpopular outgoing president, Guillermo Lasso (2021-23) defeat Luisa González, the left-leaning candidate of the correísta party, Revolución Ciudadana? Understanding why Ecuadorians opted for Noboa, a member of one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, over González, a loyal correísta, requires looking back at Correa’s decade-long presidency (2007-2017) and delving into the nature of correísmo, the political movement that he leads from Belgium.

I argue in my article – ‘Dilemmas for the Ecuadorian Left in the Shadow of Correa’ - that while Correa made important advances, including reducing poverty and violence, the progressive potential of his presidency was limited by three interrelated factors - extractivism, centralism, and authoritarianism. A fourth factor - the idolisation of Correa – has trapped correísmo in the past and closed down space for reflection and renewal. Meanwhile, its decision to support Noboa’s right-wing neoliberal agenda in the opening months of his presidency has further undermined its progressive credentials. Nonetheless, correísmo continues to position itself as a left project and remains a powerful electoral force. Thus, the non-correísta left has to engage with it in some way or other. Ignoring it or wishing it away are not realistic strategies.

The challenge is to construct a broad and plural left movement that respects diversity and autonomy and leverages a strengthening environmental consciousness to build a progressive and democratic vision of the future. I argue that this can be achieved working through, alongside, and against correísmo. The best hope of effecting progressive change through correísmo lies at the local and regional levels, where progressive correísta politicians, bureaucrats and advisers have the potential to support struggles around everyday issues like labour, housing, water, transport, and the environment. The potential of working alongside correísmo rests on the capacity of left movements and parties to protect their collective autonomy while seizing opportunities to work strategically with correístas to advance progressive agendas. Resisting and expelling the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one of the chief architects and enforcers of neoliberal austerity in Ecuador, could become a common cause that unites the left and provides a platform for future collaboration. The failure of correísmo to reject extractivism is a major obstacle for left movements to work alongside it, especially indigenous and environmental movements. Yet there are some indications, however tentative, that correísmo is willing to support anti-extractive struggles and consider post-extractive alternatives. Working against correísmo to check its extractive impulses while selectively working through and alongside it might push the movement further in this direction.

The catastrophic decline that Ecuador has suffered during seven years of neoliberal austerity has created opportunities to rebuild the left and construct a plural and progressive alternative. The obstacles are huge but light shines amid the darkness.

Dilemmas for the Ecuadorian left in the shadow of Correa by Geoff Goodwin (University of Leeds, UK) is published by Radical Americas, volume 9

Geoff Goodwin is a Lecturer in Global Political Economy at the University of Leeds, UK. His research focuses on land, water, infrastructure, activism, socioecological transformation, and (post) capitalism. He primarily conducts research in Ecuador and England.

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